In 49 B.C., Julius Caesar led his army to the banks of the Rubicon, a small river that marked the boundary between Italy and Gaul.

Caesar knew Roman law forbade a general from leading his army out of the province to which he was assigned. By crossing the Rubicon, he would violate that law.

"The die is cast," he said, wading in.

That act of defiance sparked a three-year civil war that ultimately left Julius Caesar the undisputed ruler of the Roman world.

Centuries later, it also inspired English speakers to adopt two popular sayings — crossing the Rubicon and the die is cast. Rubicon has been used in English as the name of a significant figurative boundary since at least the early 1600s.

Thanks to the Merriam-Webster dictionary for that little history lesson.

Here at the end of Q3 in 2021, we can find plenty of English words and phrases that describe irreversible moments.

Crossroads, crunch time, sink or swim, match point, high noon.

I’m no history buff but I do have a decent understanding of human nature. I suspect Caesar experienced his share of Should I? or Shouldn’t I? moments as he calculated the risks leading up to crossing the Rubicon.

Every calculated risk comes with a point of no return. You’re either going to move forward or you’re not. What and how you think about the risk at hand determines which answer you choose. Certainly, Rafa Ortiz knew he’d face a moment of truth as he planned to kayak over Niagara Falls in 2011 — and ideally live to tell about it.  Unlike Jessie Sharp, who went over the lip in 1990 in a kayak and was never seen again.

The pandemic of 2020 will most likely be remembered as a turning point in global history, one full of calculated risks at all levels. Certainly for anyone who contracted Covid, served on the frontline in hospitals, and/or lost someone to Covid, the last 18 months have shown us in real-time what can happen when one choice is made over another.

The ongoing war raging in America right now about masks and vaccinations showcases how calculated risks influence personal decisions and shape culture. For millions of Americans, the die is cast. Two general camps exist:  those who refuse to get the vaccine or wear a mask in public and those who are lining up for their third booster shot and wear a mask everywhere. Members of each camp are calculating their risks related to what they believe is true. 

Each is wading into their respected river with the intention to cross and nothing’s going to stop them.

Calculated Risks for the Win?

For centuries two overarching paradigms have governed the way humans explain why the world is the way it is -- science and theology. Numerous variables play into why one person thinks the way they do while another thinks completely differently. Sometimes these people are part of the same family.

As we strive to discover more about ourselves and our place in the world, we seek guidance from sources beyond ourselves. Within the context of the Covid pandemic, scientific evidence continues to mount that being vaxxed significantly reduces one's risk of dying from Covid should one get sick from it. Meanwhile, conspiracy theories that mushroomed across social media about what was happening during the early days of the pandemic have been consistently refuted.

Regardless of which camp someone belongs to, small acts of defiance give those committing them a sense of control. Of tamping down the chaos unfolding around them. Of explaining the unexplainable. Despite the warning signs plastered along the banks of swollen rivers, some people choose to wade in deeper. Even when the law forbids them to do something — as in Caesar’s case — or general consensus strongly suggests -- as in the case of airlines requiring passengers to wear masks -- they do it anyway. 

In the song “History Has Its Eyes on You” from the hit musical Hamilton, Lin Manuel Miranda’s George Washington sings:

“I was younger than you are now

When I was given my first command

I led my men straight into a massacre

I witnessed their deaths firsthand

I made every mistake and felt the shame rise in me

And even now I lie awake, knowing history has its eyes on me

I have zero doubt that history has its eyes on us, right now, at this moment. We will look back on this strange time and apply new information as a way of explaining what happened and why. Some people will be recognized as brave warriors who never gave up the fight to mitigate the devastating effects of chaos and confusion left behind in their wakes. 

It won't be easy or necessarily fast. But it's possible to be optimistic about what's ahead despite our current challenges.

Bigger questions will persist. 

Where do we draw the line between personal choice vs social responsibility? 

Do we cross the Rubicon even when authorities tell us not to? 

At what point is it too late to turn around?

What's the calculated risk we take for the win?